Answer no. And it’s not the airline’s fault. World flying has dwindled to a trickle. On any given day it’s a fraction of normal. Traffic through the airports in USA have fallen to less than 5% of normal for the past week in the USA. China had only 15% of airline passengers in February 2020 compared to the previous year, 2019. Borders are shut down. So how do we end this situation? Timothy O’Neil-Dunne, principal, 777 Partners, proposes a solution and offers hope of accelerating the return to a new normal.
Here is what the current protocols that are in place – simplified for departures only. As can be seen there is no health check so Passengers, Bags, Crew, and Airport Workers are all potential problems.
The answer is quite simple but will anyone bite the bullet? Let us consider the problem. There is a very simple progression. A safe air transportation system can re-open borders. Only knowing that the plane is safe can work. A safe plane requires safe passengers and crew. That means that the airport must be safe.
Today that is not the case. In fact, we can already see the impact. The virus spreads in confined spaces usually through aerosol spreading. Thus, while the virus is active, as it is now, then we must have safe airports with buffer zones to ensure that ONLY those people who are not carriers and test negative should be permitted on any flight. Delta Airlines’ pilot union on April 6 reported 50 of its members have tested positive. You cannot social distance on an aircraft. Even when it becomes dormant, can we be assured that everyone is safe? Some airlines are trying with spacing. But that is not enough.
Bill Gates has said we need testing and a vaccine as the best form of solution. I agree. But we will be waiting for quite some time – at least 9-12 months before a vaccine is available in reasonable numbers. Probably 18 months for mass production. But solving it for 7.8 billion people? That is a very hard thing to do.
We can however isolate the air transportation system. For this we need the assurance that all people entering that plane are safe. Leaving the plane as assured safe travelers is critical for international travel. It should be obvious to everyone that only if we have an assurance that the aircraft is clean and that no one on the flight is a carrier even a small spreader – will we be able to provide assurance of ending cross border infections. And for any international travel, that is essential.
The answer is testing. There are only three types of tests that are viable at the moment. Possibly more but that is tricky to determine. Great care is needed to ensure the right test is used correctly.
Test 1 – viral protein tests for presence of the virus. Administered via a swab
Test 2 – serology tests for the presence of antibodies in the blood. Administered via a pin prick
Test 3 – tests for the RNA in the nucleic acid. Also, via swab or a paper test with blood
These tests are not available yet for instant verification but a 5-minute reasonably accurate version can be delivered. The Beijing health authorities are now indeed insisting on this. There is no assured vaccine. We know that people who are asymptomatic can be disease carriers. For as close to 100% safe as we can, we must therefore only allow those onto planes who have been verified as safe, that is, those who have antibodies or those who are clean.
Encouraging signs are coming on testing for a fourth type based on technology – like the Elenium Automation Touchless Self-Service system.
Thus, to accelerate the opening of borders and restoring normalcy to the planet, I would like to propose a version of the “Safe Flight Protocol”. Assuming that we can do some form of testing on a regular basis – even if it’s limited number at all participating airports – then we can create a safe zone of air transport which is vital for passengers, crews, airport workers and indeed whole countries.
Simply put, it is the creation of an airport buffer zone where those who wish to fly can ONLY enter the airport if they have been tested at the airport before entering the secure Airport public areas semi-sterile zone. Departure can be safe in that regard but setting up secure areas for pre-testing as a requirement to enter the airport is no small task. But fortunately, airports are in general built for the smooth flow of people and thus segregating and running people through a test protocol is practically achievable.
The gating factors for eliminating this requirement are that there is no assurance of any person being safe to travel either through having been vaccinated or having had the disease or having a pre-test. Thus – to fly – a test must be fully assured for all people on the flight and all the people they came into contact with since the time they were last tested. The speed with which an airport can process potential passengers (and airport workers) will be driven by the test itself and the ability to manage it. Remember that this applies to all airport workers as well as passengers and their bags.
Roll-out of the test will mean that only airports that are practising the protocol can enable traffic between them. I would recommend an international standard for threat level and permissions that is agreed. Then we have to say where a flight has passengers who have not been verified as tested – they must be tested again to the standard of the arriving airport in order to let them through. This solution probably works for other forms of transportation and accommodation too. This is the approach being taken by China.
Will this situation have to persist? Hopefully not. But until we have a worldwide common safe assurance, I believe that this is the right way to address the problem. Building up “safe” travelers and secure inter-country relationships, both bilateral and regional, this is the starting point. Rebuilding trust in the system is a must. Commercial and private traffic can then flow.
So please tell your governments, get on board with this idea. Building safe cross border passage is the only way to rebuild our lifestyle and the global economy. So YES, it can be safe. Now it’s up to the airline industry stakeholders to work it out.
Thank you – stay safe and keep distancing.
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